Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 12 | 8.9 | 12.3% | 86 | 0.75% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 11.0 | 15% | 105 | 0.77% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 13.0 | 19.3% | 135 | 0.65% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 11.3 | 17.2% | 120 | 0.88% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 10.9 | 14.3% | 100 | 0.96% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 6.9 | 9.6% | 67 | 0.53% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 5.6 | 7.3% | 51 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 2 | 4.1 | 5% | 35 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 63 | 71.6 | 100% | 699 | 0.67% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 09 | 19369 | 65935 | 591 | 155 | 839 |
| Dec 10 | 19461 | 66043 | 597 | 155 | 800 |
| Dec 11 | 19519 | 66082 | 597 | 155 | 749 |
| Dec 12 | 19519 | 66114 | 597 | 155 | 639 |
| Dec 13 | 19581 | 66158 | 598 | 155 | 591 |
| Dec 14 | 19680 | 66230 | 600 | 155 | 637 |
| Dec 15 | 19743 | 66303 | 602 | 155 | 699 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 09 | 12856 | 38391 | 549 | 134 | 498 |
| Dec 10 | 12960 | 38451 | 553 | 135 | 551 |
| Dec 11 | 12980 | 38483 | 553 | 135 | 476 |
| Dec 12 | 12989 | 38504 | 553 | 135 | 426 |
| Dec 13 | 13065 | 38535 | 556 | 136 | 434 |
| Dec 14 | 13100 | 38574 | 560 | 136 | 432 |
| Dec 15 | 13188 | 38622 | 564 | 136 | 519 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 5.6 | 9.8% | 51 | 0.66% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 8.4 | 14.6% | 76 | 0.9% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 7.0 | 11.6% | 60 | 0.84% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 9.4 | 16.4% | 85 | 1.01% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 8.7 | 15% | 78 | 1.01% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 8.1 | 15.2% | 79 | 0.81% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 5.4 | 9.2% | 48 | 0.57% |
| 70+ | 6 | 4.7 | 8.1% | 42 | 0.59% |
| All ages | 88 | 57.4 | 100% | 519 | 0.8% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 09 | 10031 | 25568 | 440 | 101 | 459 |
| Dec 10 | 10075 | 25589 | 444 | 108 | 435 |
| Dec 11 | 10096 | 25616 | 446 | 108 | 388 |
| Dec 12 | 10117 | 25629 | 446 | 108 | 340 |
| Dec 13 | 10129 | 25631 | 445 | 108 | 302 |
| Dec 14 | 10145 | 25667 | 446 | 108 | 309 |
| Dec 15 | 10172 | 25685 | 447 | 108 | 327 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.1 | 6.4% | 21 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 3.0 | 9.5% | 31 | 0.57% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 3.1 | 11.9% | 39 | 0.86% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 5.1 | 17.7% | 58 | 1.07% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 5.6 | 16.8% | 55 | 1.11% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.4 | 16.2% | 53 | 0.78% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.9 | 12.2% | 40 | 0.63% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.6 | 9.2% | 30 | 0.47% |
| All ages | 27 | 29.9 | 100% | 327 | 0.72% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 09 | 20509 | 77198 | 767 | 130 | 912 |
| Dec 10 | 20642 | 77408 | 778 | 134 | 911 |
| Dec 11 | 20710 | 77458 | 778 | 134 | 860 |
| Dec 12 | 20736 | 77496 | 778 | 134 | 778 |
| Dec 13 | 20778 | 77627 | 782 | 134 | 762 |
| Dec 14 | 20868 | 77783 | 784 | 136 | 841 |
| Dec 15 | 20961 | 77954 | 784 | 137 | 871 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 13.0 | 14.4% | 125 | 1.06% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 15.0 | 17.2% | 150 | 0.91% |
| 20-29 | 25 | 17.3 | 18.3% | 159 | 0.75% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 14.4 | 16.8% | 146 | 1.07% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 11.4 | 12.5% | 109 | 0.8% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 9.9 | 12.1% | 105 | 0.74% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 4.9 | 5.5% | 48 | 0.34% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.7 | 3.3% | 29 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 93 | 88.6 | 100% | 871 | 0.74% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 09 | 64834 | 445331 | 2080 | 398 | 2319 |
| Dec 10 | 65259 | 446069 | 2087 | 397 | 2422 |
| Dec 11 | 65306 | 446562 | 2087 | 397 | 2154 |
| Dec 12 | 65341 | 446819 | 2087 | 397 | 1808 |
| Dec 13 | 65620 | 447125 | 2092 | 398 | 1807 |
| Dec 14 | 66264 | 447724 | 2112 | 398 | 2428 |
| Dec 15 | 66743 | 448301 | 2145 | 399 | 2813 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 59 | 52.3 | 16.7% | 469 | 0.78% |
| 10-19 | 63 | 46.0 | 15.1% | 425 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 77 | 55.9 | 17.9% | 504 | 0.49% |
| 30-39 | 96 | 56.9 | 17.8% | 500 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 68 | 42.9 | 13.1% | 368 | 0.56% |
| 50-59 | 64 | 31.7 | 10.1% | 283 | 0.43% |
| 60-69 | 33 | 18.6 | 5.5% | 155 | 0.28% |
| 70+ | 19 | 12.1 | 3.8% | 108 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 479 | 316.4 | 100% | 2813 | 0.51% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 09 | 1024094 | 3736187 | 50929 | 10386 | 43319 |
| Dec 10 | 1030337 | 3742883 | 51264 | 10424 | 44108 |
| Dec 11 | 1031929 | 3746730 | 51285 | 10425 | 39545 |
| Dec 12 | 1033629 | 3749073 | 51292 | 10425 | 35942 |
| Dec 13 | 1038465 | 3752101 | 51544 | 10483 | 36035 |
| Dec 14 | 1043693 | 3758035 | 51758 | 10544 | 40278 |
| Dec 15 | 1049261 | 3763951 | 51999 | 10610 | 44135 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 681 | 560.6 | 12.4% | 5465 | 0.85% |
| 10-19 | 852 | 645.9 | 14% | 6183 | 0.82% |
| 20-29 | 757 | 663.0 | 14.4% | 6351 | 0.84% |
| 30-39 | 991 | 784.9 | 17% | 7502 | 0.99% |
| 40-49 | 778 | 645.1 | 14% | 6168 | 0.88% |
| 50-59 | 683 | 576.1 | 12.6% | 5539 | 0.68% |
| 60-69 | 513 | 407.4 | 9.1% | 4000 | 0.53% |
| 70+ | 319 | 282.1 | 6.6% | 2920 | 0.46% |
| All ages | 5568 | 4565.7 | 100% | 44135 | 0.76% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-01-07 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 10343"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges